The decline in cases of Postponement of Debt Payment Obligations (PKPU) and current bankruptcy is directly proportional to the success of the Indonesian government in controlling Covid-19. Because Covid-19 is under control and there are no longer large-scale social restrictions (PSBB), economic activity has begun to normalize and current economic conditions are starting to improve.
The decline in cases of Postponement of Debt Payment Obligations (PKPU) and current bankruptcy is directly proportional to the success of the Indonesian government in controlling Covid-19. Because Covid-19 is under control and there are no longer large-scale social restrictions (PSBB), economic activity has begun to normalize and current economic conditions are starting to improve.
From 2019 to 2021, there was a significant upward trend. In 2020 there was an increase of 23.2% from the total cases in the previous year. And in 2021 it reached its highest peak with an increase of 34.9%. Furthermore, in 2022 there was a decrease in cases of 13.37%.
Based on these data, there is a downward trend in PKPU and bankruptcy. This indicator is sufficient to show that the economy is already on an improving trend. the decline in PKPU and bankruptcy cases illustrates that the business world is directly proportional to economic conditions in general. Namely, the economy showed a positive trend in 2022 compared to conditions in 2021. This is in line with consistent economic growth growing above 5%.
Even so, businesses and the public in general must remain cautious considering that it is estimated that inflation will reach 7.34% in 2023.
Developments in 2022 are considered better when compared to the average increase in the previous two years which reached 30%. This happened due to the increasingly conducive business and economic conditions in Indonesia. Based on the Case Search System (SIPP) update for 2022, there were 636 cases registered with details of 540 cases of Bankruptcy and Suspension of Obligations for Payment of Debt and 96 cases of Petition for Declaration of Bankruptcy
TREND IN 2020 – 2022 (MONTHLY)
Based on the trend of PKPU cases in the last three years, each has its own unique characteristics. In 2020 it has an upward trend in the second half 2020 until it continues in first half 2021 until it slopes down until the end of the year. Furthermore, in 2022 there was a slow trend of increasing cases and slowing down at the end of the year.
Many factors caused the addition of PKPU cases to fluctuate. The weakening of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar and the fluctuating fuel price factor due to the war between Russia and Ukraine made goods prices even more expensive.
And the increase in the price of these goods weakens people's purchasing power and they reduce consumption on a large scale, including recreation and non-staple goods. This can result in reduced income for businesses.
TYPES OF INDUSTRY WHICH ARE INVOLVED MOST IN PKPU CASES IN 2022
Throughout 2022 there are 3 sectors that are most involved in PKPU cases. After processing and analyzing the data, most of the subjects involved in the case came from the Real Estate Activities sector (16.90% of the total subjects involved), Construction (11.57%), and Manufacture (11.39%).
The threat of a recession abroad, such as in Europe and America, must also be watched out for because it will definitely have an impact on exports of some of Indonesia's top products. Such as textiles, furniture, handicrafts and other commodities. These sectors are business sectors that are definitely affected and have the potential to be caught in the PKPU trap and bankruptcy. Businesses must think about how to extend their breath or stamina in order to survive during the economic crisis that will hit the world in 2023.
The global recession that is predicted to occur in 2023 is likely to increase the number of bankruptcy and PKPU applications because debtors whose debts are past due and collectible do not have sufficient cash flow to meet obligations while creditors also need the money to maintain the financial health of their companies.
THE MOST INVOLVED MANUFACTURER IN PKPU CASE IN 2022
It was recorded that there were 64 manufacturing companies involved in the PKPU case in 2022. As many as 71.88% did not specifically mention the commodities produced. Based on the type of industry, the largest number of companies came from the Textiles sector, namely 4.69%. Cement, Hydraulics; fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment and Silverware, Plated Ware, and Stainless Steel Ware each with 3.13%.
PROJECTION OF PKPU IN 2023
The number of companies that fail to pay has actually decreased in 2022 when compared to previous years. It is just that, many companies are delaying their payment obligations. The risk of default on debt securities is still shadowing. Reflecting on 2022, several companies have recorded defaults, especially in the manufacturing sector.
However, CRIF Indonesia hopes that the economic recovery will continue in 2023 which is full of challenges. Fewer disputes in economic activity will be one of the references for investors to expand their business.
Based on the projected economic growth in 2023, the World Bank predicts that Indonesia's economic growth will still outperform China's until 2023. After that, China's economy will skyrocket leaving Indonesia's economic growth behind. (https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20230112085348-4-404870/kabar-baik-ekonomi-indonesia-ungguli-china-tahun-ini)
Based on the January 2023 edition of the Global Economic Prospect, the World Bank estimates that Indonesia's economy can still grow 5.2% in 2022, higher than the projection made in June 2022 of 5.1%.
Meanwhile, in 2023, the growth is expected to slow down to 4.8% and increase slightly to 4.9% in 2024. Mainly due to the pressure of the global economic slowdown which has the potential to slow down the demand for exports and investment, triggered by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, high inflation, as well as high interest rates.
And the projection from the World Bank is in line with the projection from CRIF Indonesia which has been published in the previous article. Where the Indonesian economy is estimated to still be able to grow 5.3% in 2022. And in 2023, the growth is expected to slow down to 4.79%.
Secondary Source BPS, Reprocessed by CRIF INDONESIA
Secondary Source BPS, Reprocessed by CRIF INDONESIA
